US may lose 1.5L foreign students as enrollments dip 30–40%

• U.S. may lose 150,000 foreign students this fall.
• Projected $7B loss from enrolment and tuition decline.
• Visa delays, policy shifts, and rivals drive downturn.

According to a recent projection from NAFSA (Association of International Educators) and JB International, U.S. universities may see a decrease of 30 to 40 percent in new international student commencements this fall.

This decrease, which may mean as many as 150,000 new international students in total, may lead to losing close to $7 billion in tuition and living expense revenue, with over 60,000 jobs at stake, or about a 15% overall decline in international enrolments in the face of increasing uncertainty.

Enrollment data collected from SEVIS shows that international student numbers have already been down 11% between March 2024 and March 2025, costing U.S. institutions around $4 billion. The fall forecast is concerning in that it represents expedited movement away from the existing trend and comes as part of an even larger and more pervasive set of challenges.

Also Read: UK Makes eVisas Mandatory for International Students and Workers

Multiple factors contribute to the downturn:

• Visa processing delays in the peak May–August period have discouraged potential students
• Trump-era immigration policies, e.g., work permit restrictions, more extensive vetting have produced a "chilling effect" among applicants and families keenly concerned
• Heightened global competition from countries including Canada, the UK, Australia and other European states offering simplified visa rules and incentives. 

For numerous universities particularly public institutions reliant on full-fee-paying international students this situation represents a financial crisis.These institutions often have excess tuition revenue to earmark for domestic student assistance; a dramatic drop will constrain budgets, narrow academic offerings, and imperil jobs.

The larger implications include less cultural and intellectual diversity on campuses, decreased cross-border academic exchange, and diminished international research collaboration. Overall, these trends may compel higher education institutions to reconsider their strategies for international recruitment, and attempt to find new markets to stay competitive globally.